Reaction to the Big Three Signings: Kane, Keith, Toews Ink Deals

Jim Neveau, PIB Co-conspirator

News came down from the Blackhawks on Wednesday that the team will announce the signings of Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, and Duncan Keith at a press conference tomorrow afternoon at the United Center.

As Chris Kuc of the Chicago Tribune reports it, the deals will be for five years with Kane and Toews, and a lengthy 13 year deal for Keith.  According to Darren Dreger of TSN, the deals for Kane and Toews are both carrying cap hits of $6.3 million, and Keith’s will have a $5.5 million cap hit.

Jonathan Toews/Patrick Kane

The big question that arises after these extensions are formally announced tomorrow is whether or not they are good contracts. With the cap situation that the Blackhawks currently find themselves in, it might not be the most financially prudent move to make. When looked at through the prism of the lengthy deals already dished out to Dave Bolland, Marian Hossa, Brian Campbell, and Cristobal Huet, the Hawks are going to be under a massive cloud of cap issues for a long time.

According to math from the website NHLNumbers.com, the three deals would put the Blackhawks at $60.57 million next season, spread out over 16 players. This year’s NHL Salary Cap is at $56.8 million, and isn’t expected to go up next season. Therefore, some players will need to be moved in order for this situation to work itself out.

That has already been described by so many sources that I can’t even begin to cite them all. Players have been bandied about in trade rumors for months, and rumors have been flying furiously tonight as well. Patrick Sharp keeps getting brought up, as do Cam Barker and Dustin Byfuglien. Pipe dreams concerning Brian Campbell keep bubbling to the surface as well, but it’s highly doubtful that any team can get suckered into taking that contract.

Duncan Keith

With the trade scenarios and cap numbers coming out of our ears, the question of the quality of the contracts comes up. How do these deals stack up with other players in the NHL?

Patrick Kane: 5 years, average of $6.3 million per season

Compared to other significant RW contracts signed in recent months, Kane may seem a little steep deal-wise, but with his upside, and his marketability, the team could have gotten a slight bargain on the deal.

In his first two seasons, Kane scored 46 goals and notched 96 assists. He also scored 20 PPG during that time.

So far this season, he has 9 goals and 17 assists in 26 games, while maintaining a plus-7 during that time. His career plus-minus now stands at an even zero through 188 games.

Martin Havlat’s $5 million a year, six year deal is fairly similar to Kane’s, and he is having a tough time staying on the ice this season. Phil Kessel signed a $5.4 million a year deal with the Leafs when he was traded from the Bruins, and Corey Perry is currently under contract for a $5.325 million hit. Kane is making a little less than a million more per year than the last two players, but he still has the potential to go up in his goal scoring and assist gathering ways over the other two.

Verdict: A little over-paying now, but could become a bargain later

Jonathan Toews: 5 years, $6.3 million average per year

Jonathan Toews (Pam Rodriguez)

After a stellar 08-09 season in which he captained a team to within three wins of a Stanley Cup Finals, and scored 34 goals in the process, Mr. Toews was always considered to be the first person of the Big Three that the Hawks needed to sign.

When you compare his salary to that of Danny Briere ($6.365 million cap hit) and Paul Stastny ($6.6 million), the Hawks seem to have made a good deal with the 21-year-old. His leadership is hard to replace in the locker room, and even though he only has six goals so far this season through 20 games, four of those came with the man-advantage, meaning that they were pressure-goals.

He also has consistently been a good defender, using his 6-foot-3 frame to dish out some serious hits and impede the progress of opponents’ rushes. He also has a lightning quick face-off technique, and he is one of the team’s best penalty killers. His +34 through 166 career games is nothing to sneeze at either.

Verdict: Dollar amount is fair, length is only concern (who only signs a captain for five years?)

Duncan Keith: 13 years, $5.5 million average per season

Mr. Keith wins the “Hossa Award” for lengthy contract whose sizable girth will be used to minimize his cap hit, and also keep him in a Hawks uniform until he is 39 years old.

Chicago Blackhawks (Jim Neveau/PIB)

When looking at some of the other blue-liner contracts that have been doled out, Keith’s deal seems like the biggest bargain of the Big Three. Looking at Dion Phaneuf’s $6.5 million hit, and Brian Rafalski’s $6 million hit, Keith’s $5.5 million hit over 13 years looks like a good deal.

Considering that Keith has notched a plus-72 over the past three seasons, and that this season has seen him begin to become an even more potent offensive force, the deal seems to be a genius stroke. He has nearly equaled his 07-08 assist total (20) through 26 games this season, and he has also scored five goals through his first 26 games.

If Keith can stay paired up with Brent Seabrook, then it seems as though the Blackhawks will have a go-to defensive pairing for the foreseeable future.

Verdict: Great Bargain, gives Blackhawks much needed blue-line support for the long-term

Tags: Brian Rafalski, Chicago Blackhawks, Corey Perry, Danny Briere, Dion Phaneuf, Duncan Keith, Jonathan Toews, martin havlat, Patrick Kane, Paul Stastny, Phil Kessel